Is N.C. State going dancing?

March 10, 2012

The NCAA Tournament picture sure looks a lot better for the Wolfpack than it did at this time yesterday.

Every projection I’ve seen this morning has N.C. State in the Tournament — barely. The consensus seems to be that, as things stand right now, the Pack would be one of the last four teams in and probably playing in the First Four in Dayton on Tuesday.

I’m almost scared to write this, but State feels like a Tournament team after winning against Virginia yesterday. While I recognize that RPI isn’t everything, the Pack now ranks 49th according to Live-RPI.com, three spots ahead of the team they just beat on a neutral floor and with a much better strength of schedule. The Cavaliers are projected as a solid 9 or 10 seed in the Big Dance. If they’re in, then surely State is, too, right?

Things have broken pretty well for State over the last few days, with other bubble teams falling left and right. I know there was some thought that the regular-season sweep over Miami would have looked even better if the Hurricanes hadn’t lost to Florida State last night. But I don’t think the slight boost to the Pack’s RPI was as valuable as watching a team in direct competition for an at-large spot lose.

Still, State’s fate at this point is very much in the hands of the Selection Committee. Despite 22 wins against a tough schedule, the Pack’s only victory against a current Top 50 RPI team* came in November against Texas (who ranks 48th).

Of course, a win against North Carolina today would make the rest of this post moot. And I’d like to think it would be Mark Gottfried’s way of continuing the recent tradition of first-year State coaches making dramatic runs to the ACC Tournament finals.

 

* Virginia (52) and Miami (59) both fell out of the Top 50 yesterday, according to Live-RPI.com.


Do you know your enemy?

November 27, 2009

When I was a freshman at N.C. State, I quickly learned that I needed to know four words in the fight song above all others. I could be forgiven for not knowing the rest as long as I shouted “Go to Hell, Carolina!” at the top of my lungs. (The actual words to the song are “Come over the hill, Caroline,” but really, what fun is that?)

For Wolfpack fans, it’s crystal clear that North Carolina is their rival. But Sports Illustrated has a survey out that shows every fan base in the ACC doesn’t have the same clarity, at least when it comes to figuring out who’s their main in-conference rival.

The SI survey covered every I-A conference in the country. Andy Staples wrote a summary of its results, including this description of how it came about:

In October, we asked college football fans of all stripes to tell us about themselves. We received 33,144 responses to questions such as “What is your favorite team?” and “How closely do you follow recruiting?” We received responses from fans of all 120 schools in the Football Bowl Subdivision, and everyone’s answers counted the same — whether they came from Ohio State fans (the most, with 2,004 responses) or Florida Atlantic fans (the fewest, with four responses).

That last sentence tells me this wasn’t the most scientific survey, but that doesn’t make the data for the ACC any less interesting. Here’s how fans from each school answered the question “What is your biggest conference rival?”:

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Instead of Texting Pick ‘Em: Week 13

November 27, 2009

As is often the case with the holiday season, the last weekend of regular season ACC football seems a little anti-climactic.

Clemson clinched a spot in the conference title game last week, joining Georgia Tech for a rematch of their highly competitive game from week 2. Georgia Tech won the first half of that game, 24-0. Clemson took the second half, 27-6. The comeback wasn’t enough in a contest we’ll be revisiting next week.

Tech and Clemson take two final stabs at defending the ACC’s honor this week. The Yellow Jackets host nemesis Georgia, while Clemson travels to Columbia to play arch-rival South Carolina.

Elsewhere, the intraconference games largely match bottom- and middle-feeders. Duke and Wake Forest will meet in a matchup of two of the conference’s most prolific quarterbacks, eighth-year seniors Riley Skinner and Thaddeus Lewis. Maybe it only seems as though they’ve been playing college football that long.

Boston College seeks its second road win against Maryland.Virginia Tech seems likely to give Al Groh a rousing sendoff in what will probably be his last game coaching Virginia. Miami plays at South Florida in what may be the best matchup of the weekend.

Finally, we have the rotting husks of two rivalries: North Carolina plays at N.C. State, while Florida State travels to Gainesville to play Florida.

Closer to home, my lead in the IoT season standings is officially insurmountable. Jeremy and I differ on two games this week; sweeping them would only get Jeremy to within three games of me. I’d like to thank Boston College for nailing this one down for me by mailing in the Carolina game last week. At this time (midday) next week (Dec. 4), I’ll be getting ready to eat a steak in New York, courtesy of Jeremy. Or, chicken on a stick from a street vendor. Depends on my mood.

Onward:

Jimmy’s Picks (63-24) Jeremy’s Picks (58-29)
Clemson at South Carolina Clemson South Carolina
North Carolina
at N.C. State
North Carolina North Carolina
Wake Forest at Duke Duke Duke
Florida State at Florida Florida Florida
Virginia Tech at Virginia Virginia Tech Virginia Tech
Georgia at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech Georgia Tech
Miami at South Florida Miami South Florida
Boston College at Maryland Boston College Boston College

Instead of Texting Pick ‘Em: Week 12

November 21, 2009

The IoT team had a bit of a long week, so we haven’t had much time to post. We’re planning to pick up the pace next week, but we couldn’t let this Saturday go by without getting our picks in.

Like the ACC Coastal Division, the IoT picks league is all over but the crying (for me, at least). Jimmy widened his lead by correctly picking North Carolina and Boston College last Saturday. My chances of catching up have gotten a lot slimmer, especially since we agree on just about everything this week, except the UNC-BC game. I get the feeling I’m going to hear a lot of gloating at the IoT summit in New York in two weeks.

Jimmy’s Picks (58-24) Jeremy’s Picks (54-28)
Maryland
at Florida State
Florida State Florida State
North Carolina
at Boston College
North Carolina Boston College
Duke
at Miami
Miami Miami
Virginia
at Clemson
Clemson Clemson
N.C. State
at Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech

Instead of Texting Pick ‘Em: Week 11

November 13, 2009

Three weeks from now, Team IoT will meet face-to-face in New York City. One of us will be buying a grossly overpriced steak for the other.

This weekly picks column will determine whose wallet gets lighter in The Big Apple. Right now, I’m holding a two-game lead on Jeremy. As has become our custom, we differ on two games this week: Miami at North Carolina and Boston College at Virginia.

Four of six ACC games Saturday will occur in central North Carolina. The corpse of Florida State, beheaded last week by the needless loss of quarterback Christian Ponder, is traveling to Winston-Salem to play Wake Forest. Duke hosts Georgia Tech, the ACC’s last hope for national relevance. Miami visits Chapel Hill to play North Carolina. And N.C. State hosts C.J. Spiller and Clemson. A warning to the Wolfpack: I’ll be in the stands this week. State hasn’t won a game I’ve attended in five years.

A tangent: at Carter-Finley, I’ll be wearing my T.A. McLe … er, my Levar Fisher jersey. A funny story: at the last home game of the 2002 season, McLendon and Phil Rivers jerseys were both on sale for $20. “Why get a #17 that will only be useful for another year,” I thought. “You’ll be able to wear that 44 when Touchdown Anytime wins the Heisman in 2004! And hey, how about Kelly Rowland? Beyonce will rue the day she split with THAT hitmaker.” Way to be, Jimmy. Way to be.

Elsewhere, Virginia hosts Boston College, while Virginia Tech travels to College Park to play Maryland.

Jimmy’s Picks (53-23) Jeremy’s Picks (51-25)
Georgia Tech
at Duke
Georgia Tech Georgia Tech
Clemson
at N.C. State
Clemson Clemson
Florida State
at Wake Forest
Wake Forest Wake Forest
Virginia Tech
at Maryland
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech
Miami
at North Carolina
North Carolina Miami
Boston College
at Virginia
Boston College Virginia

IoT’s Power Rankings: Week 10

November 12, 2009

As a former student reporter once said about a student government meeting, there was an awful lot of motion in the ACC last weekend with very little movement in the IoT power rankings. Most of the top and bottom of the rankings stayed the same, with some slight changes in the mushy middle.

Meanwhile, we’re trying something a little different with the power rankings this week. Jimmy is tackling the Coastal Division (a.k.a. – the better half of the conference), while I take on the Atlantic. This arrangement works out rather nicely because it gives me the chance to do some gloating about a bit of a dispute we’ve been having. More on that later in the rankings — much later.

On to the rankings:

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IoT’s Power Rankings: Week 9

November 7, 2009

Since Jeremy and I didn’t get any comments or emails over the Power Rankings’ absence last week, I can only assume you’re all capable of great restraint. Life has gotten busy around IoT headquarters lately; all apologies.

There’s been plenty of turnover at the top of the conference since we last checked in. Miami held first place for a week, only to yield to Georgia Tech after an overtime home loss to Clemson. After two straight losses, Virginia Tech is falling, but not freely enough to give anyone new a shot at the top three. Clemson is the first time all season to hold onto our fourth spot, defending it with a 49-3 win over Coastal Carolina.

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Instead of Texting Pick’em: Week 10

November 5, 2009

As we come down to the last third of the college football season, just about every game on the ACC schedule this weekend has bowl implications. The only one that doesn’t is the game the IoT crew might be most interested in.

Jimmy and I have had a running debate over the last couple of weeks over who is the worst team in the conference — Maryland or N.C. State. (Check out our belated Power Rankings tomorrow to see how we came down on the question this time around.) Fortunately, we’ll finally get our answer on the field Saturday. While we’ve wasted quite a bit of time arguing this point, we both think the Wolfpack is going to come out on top at Carter-Finley Stadium (a.k.a. – the Un-fairgrounds).

Like the football season, we’re coming down to the end of our two-man IoT picks league. Last week, we split the two games we differed on, leaving me two back in the standings. I’ll get another chance to make up that ground Saturday.

One of the two games we’re divided on this week is Duke-North Carolina, which has some actual implications in the standings for once. Jimmy is predicting Duke’s three-game winning streak comes to an end, but I’m taking the Blue Devils to move one step closer to a bowl.

Our other head-to-head matchup is the (post-Tommy) Bowden Bowl. Florida State and Clemson have both suddenly gotten hot after disappointing starts. Jimmy likes the Seminoles and their high-scoring offense. Give me the home team that actually plays some defense.

Jimmy’s Picks (48-22) Jeremy’s Picks (46-24)
Virginia Tech
at East Carolina
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech
Virginia
at Miami
Miami Miami
Maryland
at N.C. State
N.C. State N.C. State
Wake Forest
at Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech Georgia Tech
Duke
at North Carolina
North Carolina Duke
Florida State
at Clemson
Florida State Clemson

Week 9 Roundup: Down the stretch they come

November 1, 2009

Duke Virginia Football

Could Thaddeus Lewis and Duke really be headed to a bowl? (AP Photo/News & Observer,Ted Richardson)

As we come into the home stretch of the football season, it’s becoming increasingly obvious that the ACC won’t have 10 bowl teams again. Down to the last three or four games of the season, we thought we’d use this week’s roundup to look at where each team stands with its bowl chances.

Overall records are in parentheses. Teams with an asterisk have to win seven games to become bowl eligible because they played two non-I-A teams. Perhaps not coincidentally, all three of those teams have some work to do to get to a bowl game.

With that explanation out of the way, away we go:

Atlantic Division
Boston College (6-3): Bowl eligible for the 10th consecutive season with Saturday’s win over Central Michigan. The Eagles also have a shot to play in their third straight ACC championship game if they can win a game or two on the road and get some help from someone else against Clemson.

Clemson (5-3): Bowl eligible with one more win. The bowl bid seems almost assured at this point. The bigger issue for the Tigers is whether they can get to Tampa for the ACC title game by running the table in their last three conference games, all of which are winnable.

Florida State (4-4): Has to split two of four. The Seminoles are in a much better position than they were going into their bye week. Still, they should be the underdog at Clemson next week and forget about beating Florida as long as this guy is still standing. That leaves Wake Forest and Maryland as FSU’s best path to six wins.

Wake Forest (4-5): Need to take two of three. The Demon Deacons cane up just short against Miami on Saturday, which has been the story of their season. With games left against Georgia Tech, suddenly resurgent Florida State and Duke, those last two wins could be hard to come by.

N.C. State* (3-5): Must win out. As Wolfpack fans, we’d say were ready for basketball season, but we’re not.

Maryland (2-6): Also must win out. At least Terrapin fans can look forward to watching Greivis Vasquez on the court.

Coastal Division
Georgia Tech (8-1): Orange or Chick-fil-A? That’s pretty much the only mystery left in the Yellow Jackets’ bowl picture. Tech seems all but assured of playing in the ACC championship game, so we won’t get an answer until then. Bet on the Jackets enjoying some time on South Beach instead of eating mor chikin.

Duke* (5-3): Has to split their last four. Each week, the Blue Devils’ season-opening loss to I-AA Richmond looks more like an outlier each week, but it also becomes a bigger drag on their bowl chances. With games left against Georgia Tech and Miami, Duke almost has to win against North Carolina and Wake Forest.

Miami (6-2): Bowl eligible after coming back to beat Wake Forest 28-27 on Saturday. The Hurricanes will be favored to win their last four games and crack the 10-win mark, but any shot they had an at-large BCS berth disappeared with last week’s overtime loss to Clemson.

Virginia Tech (5-3): Should become bowl eligible against East Carolina on Thursday. The key word there is “should.” The Hokies looked like a national title contender two games ago but lost to Georgia Tech and inexplicably fell to North Carolina.

North Carolina* (5-3): Must win at least twice more. Carolina and Duke are in a similar position. The Tar Heels have two games left they’re not going to be expected to win — vs. Miami and at Boston College. Next week’s game with the Blue Devils is going to go a long way toward determining both teams’ bowl fates.

Virginia (3-5): Needs to win three out of four. That’s going to be tough to do with road games against Miami and Clemson and a home date against archrival Virginia Tech.

Bottom line: Georgia Tech, Miami and Boston College will be going somewhere for the holidays, and Virginia Tech and Clemson can probably start packing before much longer. Of the rest, Florida State probably has the best shot to go to a bowl. Duke and North Carolina are likely playing an elimination game next Saturday. Wake Forest still has a shot but will need to win a game it won’t be favored in. N.C. State, Maryland and Virginia — better luck next year.

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Instead of Texting Pick’em: Week 9

October 29, 2009

Last week proved to be a bit of a game changer in the ACC standings. For the first time, an Atlantic Division team beat a Coastal Division team (twice, no less). For the first time, one of the Big Three — Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Miami — lost to someone other than each other or a Top 2 team. And for the first time in a really long time, Duke has a winning record more than halfway through the season.

Last week also promised to be a game changer in the two-man IoT picks league. With three games separating us in the standings, Jimmy and I differed on three picks. A sweep for Jimmy would have effectively put me away; a sweep for me would have knotted things up. Instead, I took two out of three to inch ever closer to my bitter rival.

This time around, we’re split on two games, starting with Central Michigan-Boston College. Jimmy is calling for the upset, picking the Chippewas, who already knocked off in-state rival Michigan State and gave Arizona a tough game. I like the Eagles at home, where they seem to do no wrong.

We’re also parting ways on the Duke-Virginia game, which looked like it was going to be a pillow fight a few weeks ago. Unlike last week, Jimmy is following his heart and picking the Blue Devils. In a close call, I’m going with my head and taking the home team again.

Jimmy’s Picks (43-20) Jeremy’s Picks (41-22)
North Carolina
at Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech
N.C. State
at Florida State
Florida State Florida State
Coastal Carolina
at Clemson
Clemson Clemson
Miami
at Wake Forest
Miami Miami
Duke
at Virginia
Duke Virginia
Central Michigan
at Boston College
Central Michigan Boston College
Georgia Tech
at Vanderbilt
Georgia Tech Georgia Tech